ROME / RankWire.AI / – The global cereal production forecast for 2026 has been adjusted, with estimates indicating a total of about 2.98 billion tonnes, based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization. This figure reflects a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest projection is also 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this annual decline, worldwide cereal output is expected to remain the second highest on record, with a reduction of approximately 61.1 million tonnes from last year.
Much of this downward trend stems from weaker maize production, which is forecasted at 1.309 billion tonnes. High temperatures and dry conditions negatively affected yields in parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland experienced some of the most significant downward revisions. Smaller reductions also affected India and Paraguay, though higher yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset these declines. Both South American countries continue to expect maize crops well above their recent averages.
In contrast, prospects for wheat have seen some improvement from earlier assessments, though global output remains below last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat production at 810.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous forecasts. The outlook was lifted due to better yield expectations for Canada and Morocco. Meanwhile, projections for Russia and Ukraine also increased, whereas dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom led to downward revisions. Overall, global wheat production is still 3.8% lower than in 2025.
Maize underperformance influences global grain totals
The forecast for rice production in the 2026/27 season stands at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, marking a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka supported the latest outlook. However, these gains were insufficient to fully offset weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. U.S. rice planting also declined to levels not seen in decades, limiting the country’s expected contribution to the global rice supply.
Projected global cereal utilization for 2026/27 is 2.965 billion tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, while wheat use is anticipated to decline from the high levels of last season. The total rice demand is forecasted at 559 million tonnes, driven by growing food needs as the world population expands. Additionally, feed requirements bolster coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles remain substantial despite a lowered overall outlook
At the close of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are projected to total 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from previous estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the prior season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are set to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas reduced maize and barley inventories mainly explain the decline in overall stock levels.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier forecasts. Despite this rise, the total remains below the record volumes achieved in 2025/26. A significant driver of this increase is higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. For rice, global trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record volume reached during 2025.