MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-range plan for its coal sector, aiming for an annual production of 662 million tonnes by the year 2050 in accordance with its projected scenario. This initiative extends the country’s coal policies into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia’s coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes, making the new benchmark a significant growth from that figure. The government ratified this programme via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, 2026.
The plan offers multiple potential development pathways instead of a single fixed forecast. Its primary scenario envisions production reaching 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, then increasing to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036 before hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year; the stress scenario estimates 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative scenario projects 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario anticipates around 586.4 million tonnes.
Exports of coal constitute a key component of the programme’s long-term goals. In the target scenario, exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rise to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and reach 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The framework also addresses domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction techniques, and regional production levels.
Eastern Siberia and Far East to Play Bigger Role in Production
The government’s strategy assigns greater importance to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East in the national coal output. In 2024, these regions contributed 48.3% of Russia’s total production. By 2050, depending on the scenario, their combined share could increase to between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia also reports more than 273 billion tonnes of proven coal reserves. The programme emphasizes maintaining current mining operations while exploring additional resource zones to meet future production goals.
Coal processing and extraction techniques are subject to separate numerical objectives within the plan. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) accounted for 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to increase this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of Russian coal production in 2024, with projections suggesting this could rise to between 82% and 85% under long-term forecasts. The strategy also incorporates initiatives to improve workforce productivity, advance mining technologies, enhance safety standards, and meet environmental requirements.
Three Phases Outline the Road to 2050
The implementation of Russia’s coal development plan will be divided into three distinct periods. The initial phase concludes in 2030, focusing on immediate industry growth and production enhancements. The second spans from 2031 to 2036, emphasizing processing, utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase extends from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution of the programme, working alongside other federal and regional authorities, with annual progress reports submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development in accordance with government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry programme through 2035, which Russia approved in 2020. Novak stated that the new strategy projects a sixfold increase in the overall value added by the coal sector by 2050, with a broader multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains the primary scenario target but is not the only possible production pathway within the plan.